Serious, potentially fatal defects have been uncovered on a sampling of petitions printed for I-1552, this year’s right wing attempt to roll back transgender rights, which means the measure could be doomed regardless of how well its signature drive goes in its final days.

In a letter to Secretary of State Kim Wyman, the coalition responsible for fighting I-1552, Washington Won’t Discriminate (which includes NPI’s Permanent Defense) explains:

We are writing to inform you that we have learned that petitions distributed by proponents of I-1552 contain multiple violations of Washington’s constitutional and statutory requirements.

These errors on the petition sheets include, but are not limited to:

1. misrepresenting the court-established ballot title for I-1552 ;
2. incorrectly presenting the court-established ballot measure summary; and
3. f ailing to include the full text of the measure on the reverse side of petition sheets.

Because the Washington Constitution requires the full text of a measure to appear on all petition sheets, we would expect the Secretary of State will not accept any petitions for I-1552 that fail to comply with this constitutional requirement. In addition, we would expect that the Secretary of State will not accept petitions that misrepresent the ballot title and/or the ballot measure summary of I-1552 . These requirements are important measures to prevent fraud and mistake in the gathering of signatures in support of initiatives and should be applied scrupulously.

These may sound like pretty fundamental errors, but considering what else we’ve heard about the Yes on I-1552 effort, it’s not surprising. It fits with the pattern we’ve seen. This is a sloppily run campaign that has been plodding along for most of the year and is now scrambling because the signature deadline is fast approaching.

I-1552 backers have struggled to raise money and have mismanaged their signature drive. Now they have an even bigger problem on their hands.

We may never know if those petitions would have been rejected, though, because it’s quite possible I-1552’s backers won’t ever turn them in to be validated. They were a no-show last year when they realized I-1515 would not have enough signatures to qualify.

As of Wednesday, June 21st, the I-1552 campaign claimed it had 141,500 signatures. That’s less than half of what it needs, and time is quickly running out. The drop-dead date to submit signatures is two weeks from today.

In our last I-1552 threat analysis, we calculated that backers of I-1552 would need to collect an average of 8,215 signatures a day. Going by the numbers they’ve provided (which may not be truthful), their actual average daily intake for mid-June has only been around 2,964 signatures.

If signatures continue to come in at around the current rate, they’ll wind up with about 200,000 signatures — 130,000 short of what they need.

If they were to double their average daily intake starting today, that would get them closer — but still not close enough to qualify. They need to almost triple their current average intake in order to make it.

That’s a tall order. Considering their track record and the potentially fatal defects that could cause I-1552 petitions to be rejected were they to be submitted, advocates of equality have reason to feel hopeful that I-1552 will soon be dead.

Backers of Initiative 1552, a mean-spirited scheme that would roll back protections for transgender individuals, are running out of time to gather signatures and haven’t got a chance of making the ballot at the rate they’ve been going.

So, in an effort to activate their sleepy base, they’ve announced a $50,000 contribution from a mystery donor and tried their hardest to make it sound like the campaign is on the verge of qualifying, needing only an extra push to get over the finish line.

For example, a June 9th email from “Chris” began as follows:

We are going to make it! I-1552 can be on the ballot, and let me tell you how.

First, because of your tireless work, we have officially passed the 100,000 signature mark! We are weeks ahead of last year’s pace. And last year, more than 170,000 new signatures came in during the last two weeks of the campaign alone.

With your continued good work, we know the flow of signatures will increase in an ever-steepening curve. There are tens of thousands of petitions on the street, and only a small fraction have started to come back. The potential is huge.

While we can certainly afford to celebrate, we cannot afford to rest yet.

As we’ve previously noted, to have only 100,000 of 330,000 needed signatures with less than a month to go before the signature deadline isn’t a good place for a statewide campaign to be. The I-1552 campaign had only 30% of what it needed nine days ago, when June was already one third of the way through.

To qualify, the campaign must amass another 230,000 signatures by July 6th (the deadline to submit is July 7th at 5 PM). That’s an average of 8,215 signatures per day.

The campaign first announced the availability of petitions on February 21st. By June 9th, they claimed to have 100,000+ signatures. So, over the course of one hundred and eight days, they gathered an average of about nine hundred and twenty-six signatures a day.

The campaign hasn’t released an updated signature count since June 9th. But even supposing they’ve doubled the pace since then, they still must increase their average daily signature intake by a factor of near ten just to acquire the bare minimum of signatures needed to pass a random sample check. That’s unlikely to happen.

But having already failed once last year trying to get I-1515 on the ballot, I-1552 backers are loathe to give up now. So they’re trying to create a self-fulfilling prophecy. By confidently predicting victory, they’re hoping to garner the money, volunteers, and attention needed to mount a massive signature surge. It’s a desperation move.

$50,000 may sound like a lot of money, and the announcement of the contribution generated some press coverage, along with editorial commentary. Joseph Backholm certainly tried to cast it in the most favorable light possible:

This is a big deal, friends. While we had originally planned to pay for 100K signatures, we are hopeful now that we will be able to pay for 150K signatures. People are stepping up financially. Assuming that continues to happen, this will relieve the load from the volunteers. Will you consider a donation of your own today?

What Backholm neglected to say is that $50,000 doesn’t buy a statewide campaign many signatures. At a rate of a dollar of a signature, $50,000 only buys 50,000 signatures. And that sounds like the rate the campaign is expecting to pay, because Backholm said the campaign was previously planning to pay for 100,000 signatures but can now afford 50,000 more with the $50,000 contribution it got.

Some of the signatures already on hand are no doubt from paid petitioners. But even if we pretend none of them were for the sake of analysis, the addition of 150,000 signatures to the total would still leave the campaign with a deficit of 80,000.

That’s a huge deficit to have to overcome with only volunteers.

Volunteer labor hasn’t been producing very much for this campaign so far, and the mere existence of the July 7th deadline isn’t going to generate the signature flood I-1552 backers are counting on. Hence, the campaign is sending out these prophetically upbeat emails. The campaign may be keeping up the pretense that victory is just over the next hill, but the numbers they’re simultaneously dropping don’t support their narrative.

We will continue to monitor this signature drive as July 7th approaches.

What does a county-level initiative that would ban safe injection sites have to do with a statewide initiative that would roll back transgender rights? Answer: It serves as a nice lead-in for out-of-state petitioners who have been given the sheets for both.

Yesterday, NPI leadership documented right wing petitioners in action, photographing a crew camped out in front of a QFC in Renton.

Petitioners were seen approaching voters to sign I-27 (the county-level measure) first– and then going for a second score by flipping their boards to present petitions for I-1552, the statewide initiative that would wrongly prohibit transgender individuals from using washrooms designated for the gender they identify as.

Because petitioners in Washington State are paid by the signature, they have a strong incentive to lead with whatever they’ve got that people are most receptive to. Banning safe injection sites (which don’t yet exist) is proving to be an easier sell in King County than forcing a public vote on the rights of transgender individuals.

Management of the Kroger-owned QFC where the petitioners were operating wasn’t pleased about the signature gathering activity taking place at their store entrance, and placed a freestanding sign right outside the doors informing patrons the petitioners were operating without the company’s blessing.

The sign read:

To Our Customers:

Petitioners are on QFC property without our permission.

QFC is not associated with this petitioning activity.

We apologize for any inconvenience this activity may cause.

The campaign to qualify I-27 to the King County ballot in November is being spearheaded by Bothell City Councilmember Joshua Freed, who says he’s quite pleased with signature gathering efforts so far.

“We’ve had over 600 volunteers reach out to us and collect signatures,” Freed told KIRO Radio in an interview on June 6th. “Today, we’re at 20,953 signatures. Our required goal is 47,443 by July 31. So, we are very well on our way.”

Freed failed to mention that his group is benefiting from the services of out-of-state signature gatherers, who have been deployed around King County with I-27 petitions. (One of the petitioners in front of the Renton QFC admitted to NPI leadership when asked that he isn’t a King County resident and is here to make a few quick bucks petitioning.)

The I-1552 campaign started back in the winter, but has struggled to catch fire. Backers are running out of time. Their submission deadline is early in July, as opposed to the end of the month, and their petitions need to contain at least 330,000 signatures or the measure will be at risk of failing a signature check. The campaign announced yesterday it had surpassed 100,000 signatures, but that’s less than a third of what they need.

The existence of the I-27 campaign is rather convenient for the struggling I-1552 campaign, because petitioners for hire haven’t got much of an incentive to come to King County just to carry I-1552 sheets. (A high number of voters in King County support LGBT rights, making refusals or lack of interest a barrier to getting signatures for I-1552.)

But by piggybacking on the I-27 effort, the I-1552 campaign can partly work around this problem. Since petitioners from out of state are already in King County to work I-27, the I-1552 campaign is making sure their paper is made available to those petitioners.

Considering how poorly their drive has gone so far, however, it could be futile. I-27 may well qualify for the November ballot in King County, but I-1552 is floundering, and won’t make the statewide ballot short of a last ditch signature gathering bonanza.

A theoconservative effort to qualify an initiative that would roll back transgender rights in Washington appears to be going nowhere, although its backers have yet to concede defeat.

With less than a month to go until this year’s signature gathering deadline arrives, proponents of I-1552 have issued a fresh plea for donations and volunteers in which they tacitly acknowledge that they’re not getting the support they had hoped for. I-1552 is a do-over of I-1515, which failed to make last year’s ballot.

What comes to your mind when you hear the number “23?” The greatest basketball player who ever lived? The number of chromosomes each human receives from each parent? The beloved Psalm in the Bible?

Here at JWP headquarters, 23 means one thing and one thing only – the number of days remaining to qualify I-1552 for the November ballot. That’s not much time at all.

Are we going to make it? Please take a few moments to watch Joseph’s video update to find out. If you do, you’ll learn that we have over 92,000 signatures in hand already and that we received over 170,000 signatures during the final two weeks of last year’s campaign. This is good news.

Good news, perhaps, for the opposition, but not for the I-1552 campaign. To qualify for the ballot, they must submit around 330,000 signatures. That’s the minimum they need. If they’ve truthfully reported what they have in hand, then they’re in bad shape. They only have a third of what they need with only a few weeks to go… and the clock is ticking.

I-1552 backers are counting on there being a sudden surge of activity at the end of their drive to propel them to the ballot.

But even if they get their wish, it’s unlikely to be enough, because they’re entering into the home stretch of the signature gathering season in such a weak position.

On May 19th, the campaign reported to its supporters that it had 50,000 signatures in hand. I-1552 promoters Joseph Backholm and Kaeley Triller Haver sent repeated appeals urging their followers to enlist church congregations to participate in a “Signature Sunday” event on June 4th to bolster the campaign’s position.

It appears the “Signature Sunday” event didn’t yield very many signatures.

By the campaign’s admission, around 42,000 signatures have been added to the tally since the 19th. That’s an average of around 2,211 signatures a day. If the campaign continued to gather signatures at the same pace, it would wind up with around 50,853 more signatures than it has now — which is less than half of what is needed.

Even if the campaign was able to collect 170,000 signatures during the final two weeks of this year’s drive — something it claimed it did last year — that still wouldn’t be enough to qualify. 92,000 + 170,000 = 262,000, and the campaign needs to submit at least 330,000 or it’s at risk of failing a signature check.

The I-1552 campaign has expended some funds to hire signature gatherers, but has said it is counting on volunteers to deliver most of what’s needed (200,000 of 330,000 signatures). It doesn’t appear that either the paid drive or the unpaid drive are going very well. And that’s great news for Washington. Hate has no place on our ballot. Our transgender population is not a public safety threat. In fact, transgender individuals are more likely to be the victims of harassment or assault than the typical person.

The demise of I-1552 would not guarantee that transgender rights are safe from being overturned. But it’s hard to see a third effort succeeding next year when two previous efforts failed. If anything, grassroots support for the cause may wane further due to the collapse of I-1515 and I-1552 and the shifting political landscape.

With the deadline to qualify initiatives to the 2017 ballot fast approaching, sketchy petitioners hired by right wing campaigns to gather signatures are once again resorting to hardball tactics in public places in order to make a few quick bucks.

Our latest evidence of petitioner misconduct comes from Sakara Remmu, who reports that today in Renton, she encountered a very aggressive, obnoxious petitioner carrying petitions for two right wing initiatives who simply wouldn’t take no for an answer.

Here’s how she described the incident:

So this white man, in Renton, is gathering signatures for ballot measures.

1. First one: keep safe injection sites out of King County.
2. Second one: As he described it, “keeps the boys in the boys’ bathroom and the girls in the girls’ bathroom.”

I declined both. He walked away. Then he came back (red flag), “Excuse me young lady (red flag), let me ask you this, then…”

I cut him off and reminded him of the laws, policies and procedures for gathering signatures. He mocked me. Then he grabbed my elbow. Defcon1. I had to tell him absolutely do not touch me. He laughed at me again. After he approached the other black folks, who declined to sign, he said loudly, “So y’all know each other or what?”

Sadly, this type of harassment occurs far too commonly, especially during the weeks before a signature deadline, when out of state petitioners are in town trying to make fast money. About two years ago, we documented a case of harassment that took place in Kirkland. Police had to be summoned when a scummy pair of right wing petitioners wouldn’t stop cursing at customers who declined to sign petitions for Tim Eyman’s draconian I-1366.

The two measures Sakara was asked to sign are:

1. Initiative 27, a King County initiative that would prohibit safe injection sites within King County.
2. Initiative 1552, a statewide initiative that would repeal a Human Rights Commission rule that allows transgender individuals to use washrooms consistent with the gender they identity as. I-1552 is sponsored by Kaeley Triller Haver.

If you encounter a petitioner hawking right wing initiatives, decline to sign. If the petitioner verbally or physically abuses you, don’t hesitate to call the police. Then, let us know what happened by submitting a report to our tracking system.

Washington State’s religious right is running out of time to gather signatures for I-1552, a do-over of last year’s failed attempt to roll back transgender rights, but they aren’t giving up just yet. In an email received by NPI today, I-1552 sponsor Kaeley Triller Haver announced the campaign’s intent to orchestrate a “Signature Sunday” event. The email asks pastors to register their churches so that petitions can be mailed to them.

We need the local church to step up to the plate and lead the charge. The Bible is pretty clear that love always protects. If we stand idly back and let the government declare that grown men have a right to be naked in front of our daughters without their consent, what in the world will we allow them to declare next?

Little girls can’t defend themselves. They need us to do it for them. That’s what Signature Sunday is all about. There are easily enough people in churches across the state on any given Sunday morning to get I-1552 on the ballot in a single day.

We’ve selected June 4 as the day to try.

This appeal is offensive and appalling on so many levels.

Young women are not threatened or harmed by the Human Rights Commission’s rule allowing transgender individuals to use a washroom or toilet designated for the gender that they identify as. Triller Haver’s fearmongering has no place in the politics of our state, and it deserves widespread condemnation and repudiation.

I-1552 needs 259,622 valid signatures to qualify for the November 2017 ballot. To offset duplicate and invalid signatures, the campaign will need to submit a minimum of 325,000 signatures total. Proponents of I-1552 have struggled to raise money so far this year and haven’t been able to mount an aggressive signature drive for their initiative. They have until July 7th to collect signatures for submission to the Secretary of State’s office.

If you see petitioners collecting for I-1552, please report your encounter to Permanent Defense. This helps us track the signature drive.