July 5th, 2017
Backers of anti-transgender initiative have run out of time to gather signatures — and they’re 123,996 short
Ballot WatchdoggingThreat Analysis
Backers of I-1552 have run out of time to gather signatures for their discriminatory initiative to roll back protections for transgender individuals in Washington, and they’re nowhere near making the ballot — at least not according to their publicly posted numbers.
As of today, the I-1552 campaign claimed to have 206,004 signatures, which is 123,996 signatures short of their goal of 330,000. 330,000 signatures are the number they need to ensure a spot on the statewide general election ballot. Less than forty-eight hours now remain until the deadline passes to submit petitions to the Secretary of State.
Given that the campaign has acknowledged only having 62% of what they need, it seems they are on the verge of being forced to admit defeat for the second year in a row.
Leading up to June 9th, the campaign’s average daily signature intake was nine hundred and twenty six signatures. At that juncture, about a month out from July 7th, the campaign needed its average daily intake to increase by a factor of about ten due to its very slow start. But that hasn’t happened.
Between June 9th and 21st, the average intake increased by a factor of just three, to 2,964. Since June 21st, the average daily intake has been 4,607 signatures. That has gotten the campaign to just over 200,000 signatures, which is what we estimated they could end up with if their efforts continued along the trajectory they were on.
Gathering 120,000 signatures in less than forty-eight hours is logistically impossible, so unless the campaign has signatures in reserve that they haven’t disclosed they have, they’re toast. We look forward to celebrating the demise of I-1552 on Friday.