Debunking Tim Eyman’s budget fabrications

Rethinking and ReframingStatements & Advisories

Eager to put the failure of I-1125 behind him, Tim Eyman has, in recent days, resorted to attacking one of his favorite targets (Governor Chris Gregoire) in his multi-weekly fundraising appeals to his band of followers.

Eyman’s latest email, dated today, is a doozy; to describe it as chock-full of fabrications would be a major understatement. It is impressively crammed with blatantly false statements and mischaracterizations.

On occasion, we take the time to deconstruct Tim Eyman’s nonsense blow-by-blow, to illustrate what we mean when we say that he is a snake oil salesman.

We’ve done that again today.

For your reading enjoyment, here is the most dishonest, deceptive paragraph from Eyman’s email, followed by our line-by-line refutation of it.

Gregoire’s first term involved explosive spending growth that was completely unsustainable: 34% spending increases. Her mountain of spending made the valley of deficits that much deeper. So by their crazy math, they claim they’ve cut spending $10 billion. And they believe the only ‘fair’ way to balance the budget is with 1/2 tax increases, 1/2 spending cuts. So that means $5 billion in tax hikes, not $500 million. If not for I-1053, they could take as much as they want and with an “emergency clause” slapped on, there’d be nothing the voters could do about it.

Let’s take this paragraph apart.

Claim #1: “Gregoire’s first term involved explosive spending growth that was completely unsustainable:  34% spending increases. Her mountain of spending made the valley of deficits that much deeper.

False. Governor Chris Gregoire’s first term began on January 12th, 2005 and ended January 14th, 2009. During those four years, state and local expenditures per $1,000 of personal income actually fell. (This is the measurement economists use to compare our government’s finances from year to year).

According to the Office of Financial Management, state and local expenditures per $1,000 of personal income were $205.75 in 2004 – the year before Gregoire took office. In 2005, they declined slightly to $199.41, and they dropped again in 2006 to $196.41. Expenditures stayed constant in 2007 and then went up a smidgen in 2008. Here’s a table, which can also be seen on OFM’s website.

2008 $197.74
2007 $196.41
2006 $196.41
2005 $199.48

That page also has a chart showing that expenditures have been somewhat constant over the last two decades. There have been highs and lows, but no wild swings.

OFM’s data, by the way, is derived from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Eyman’s “explosive spending growth” claim is pure fiction, and he knows it.
Claim #2: So by their crazy math, they claim they’ve cut spending $10 billion.
In reality, it’s Eyman’s math that’s crazy – not the governor’s and not OFM’s. Eyman routinely (and dishonestly) fabricates numbers. Being accurate is not important to him. Unlike Eyman, Governor Gregoire and state economists have to operate in the real world. They can’t lie with impunity like he can.
The correct figure is actually $10.5 billion in cuts over the last three years, not $10 billion. It should be understood that $500 million is not an insignificant amount of money. In fact, it’s a huge amount of money.

Claim #3: “[T]hey believe the only ‘fair’ way to balance the budget is with 1/2 tax increases, 1/2 spending cuts.”

False. We assume that “they” means Governor Gregoire and Democratic lawmakers (it’s not clear who else Eyman would be referring to). To our knowledge, neither Democratic legislative leaders nor any subset of the House and Senate Democratic caucuses have formally released a plan for addressing the latest budget shortfall, let alone a plan with a formula of “1/2 tax increases, 1/2 spending cuts.”

Governor Chris Gregoire, on the other hand, has released a plan for addressing the budget shortfall. If adopted as proposed, it would make $2 billion in cuts, raise $835 million in revenue, and leave $600 million in reserves. The $2 billion in proposed cuts is more than twice the amount of proposed new revenue.

The governor has repeatedly made it clear she does not want to make any more cuts to vital services, period. “I don’t want anyone to think that I like these options,” Gregoire said on October 27th, when she rolled out the first draft of her plan for dealing with the budget shortfall (which did not include any revenue increases).

Contrary to what Eyman implied in his email today, Gregoire has not used the word “fair” to describe her more recent, amended proposal, which calls for some revenue to cancel out devastating cuts. That’s probably because she recognizes that there is nothing that’s fair about the situation we’re in as a state, and nothing fair about a response that is mostly oriented around counterproductive austerity measures (which is a kinder way of saying evisceration of vital public services that people rely on).

What the governor did say is this: “After three years of cutting, now is the time to invest in a better future for all Washingtonians… I believe Washingtonians will stand with me. I believe they are tired of tearing down the services our parents and grandparents built — services that reflect the special values of Washington State.”

Claim #4: So that means $5 billion in tax hikes, not $500 million.

False. The governor has proposed increasing the state sales tax from 6.5% to 7%. The increase would be temporary, expiring on July 1st, 2015. The increase would go into effect on July 1st, 2012, and is projected to bring in $494 million through June 30th, 2013. If it brought in a similar amount in the two subsequent years it remained in effect, then the total raised would amount to approximately $1.5 billion.

The governor is also asking the Legislature to approve $341 million in additional revenue alternatives, some of which are temporary. If all of them were approved, that would bring the total raised through June 30th, 2013, to $835 million.

The Office of Financial Management has not estimated how much revenue the governor’s plan would bring in through July 1st, 2015. But even if we assumed that the governor’s plan would increase state revenue by $835 million per year beginning July 1st, 2012, and ending July 1st, 2015, that’s still only $2.5 billion… not $5 billion.

Claim #5: If not for I-1053, they could take as much as they want and with an “emergency clause” slapped on, there’d be nothing the voters could do about it.

False. Voters have the power to fire the entire House of Representatives and half the Senate every two years. If we the people of Washington don’t like the decisions our lawmakers make, we can vote our lawmakers out of office. That’s what representative democracy is all about. (Every Washington voter, Tim Eyman included, is represented by two state representatives and one state senator).

Furthermore, as the American Beverage Association proved last year with Initiative 1107, it is possible to force a public vote on a revenue increase even if the emergency clause is invoked. That’s because, although a bill with the emergency clause attached cannot be subject to referendum, it can still be repealed by initiative.

During the 2010 legislative session, lawmakers voted to slightly raise taxes on soda. The ABA (which is mostly funded and controlled by The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, and Dr Pepper Snapple Group) responded by dumping $16 million into I-1107, a statewide initiative which was approved at the November 2010 general election. I-1107 rescinded the tax increase on soda, the tax increase on candy, and put back into place an unfair tax exemption the Legislature had repealed.

Statement on the apparent defeat of I-1125

Election PostmortemStatements & Advisories

Following the release of the first returns for the 2011 general election, NPI’s Permanent Defense published the following statement, reacting to the apparent defeat of Tim Eyman’s I-11125.

Many long months of working to educate voters about the cost and consequences of Tim Eyman’s Initiative 1125 thankfully appear to be paying off tonight.

Although many ballots have yet to be counted, early returns suggest that when the election is certified, Washington will have rejected yet another senseless Eyman scheme to paralyze transportation planning and wreck government.

“We’re pleased to see that I-1125 is failing both east and west of the Cascades,” said NPI founder Andrew Villeneuve, observing that the initiative was losing in counties like Whitman as well as King, Snohomish, Kitsap, and Island counties. “Tonight, Washingtonians are thoughtfully saying yes to safe roads and no to Tim Eyman’s plot to slap handcuffs on the wrists of our transportation planners. This is a significant victory for our common wealth and for the common good.”

“For months, we’ve been working alongside many friends and allies to ensure that I-1125 received the opposition it deserved,” Villeneuve added.

“We’re delighted that those efforts have paid off. We’re especially grateful to each and every activist that helped phonebank, put up yard signs, knock on doors, and distribute literature. Getting out the vote requires a big time commitment, but it’s crucial. Donations of time are just as important as donations of money.”

“We thank the voters for considering the concerns that we raised, and ultimately agreeing with us that Washington simply couldn’t afford I-1125.”

Danny Westneat assails Tim Eyman’s secret war on light rail

From the Campaign TrailRethinking and Reframing

Seattle Times columnist Danny Westneat has a blistering must-read column in today’s edition of the Seattle Times, taking Tim Eyman and Kemper Freeman Jr. to task for quietly trying to stop Sound Transit’s East Link project through a sneaky provision buried in I-1125, which is intended to kill East Link, but doesn’t actually mention the project or even include the words “light rail”.

When Tim Eyman went before the Bellevue City Council recently, he handed out a sheet describing what his latest idea, Initiative 1125, would do.

It’s what was missing from the sheet that got the most attention.

“I’ve never seen an initiative quite like this, where its intentions are masked from the people who will vote on it,” says Grant Degginger, a Bellevue City Council member and former mayor.

“If you’re trying to kill light rail, just come out and say so.”

It’s not just that the words “light rail” weren’t in Eyman’s handout that day. They also are not in the Voter’s Guide statement for the I-1125 campaign. Nor in any of Eyman’s campaign news releases. Nor in recent op-eds written by Eyman and the initiative’s financier, Bellevue developer Kemper Freeman.

The words “light rail” aren’t in I-1125 or in Eyman’s campaign materials because Eyman and Freeman apparently don’t want to be seen as trying to overturn the will of the voters. (The phrase will of the voters is one of Eyman’s favorites). Both Eyman and Freeman opposed Sound Transit 2 when it was on the ballot three years ago, but they lost. In fact, they didn’t just lose, they lost big.

As Westneat notes:

[P]utting light rail across the Interstate 90 bridge is already voter-approved, by a 57 percent vote in the 2008 election. Brochures from that campaign show a rendering of the bridge with light rail running on it, along with before-and-after drawings of how the traffic lanes would be altered. So it’s hard to argue people didn’t know what they were voting for. Then, anyway.

Of course, in Tim Eyman’s mind, a vote of the people only counts when it goes his way. Eyman views his own losses as temporary setbacks, but he demands that his opponents recognize his victories as permanent. It’s quite the double standard.

Please join us in voting NO on I-1125 this autumn. Keep Sound Transit’s East Link project on track, keep our roads safe, and keep Washington rolling.

The Columbian: I-1125 “threatens greater harm” to our transportation system “than any proposal we’ve seen in years”

EndorsementsFrom the Campaign Trail

The Columbian has joined the list of newspaper editorial boards opposed to Tim Eyman’s anti-tolling, anti-light rail I-1125. In an editorial published today, the Vancouver-based paper denounced I-1125 as “inedible soufflé was cooked up by professional initiative chef Tim Eyman and leavened with expensive dough: a $1 million donation from Bellevue developer Kemper Freeman Jr.”. The editorial went on to criticize several of I-1125’s thoughtless provisions.

The worst of I-1125’s many flaws would be its mandate for Washington to do something that not one of the 50 state does: politicize the setting of tolls. All states correctly place that function in the hands of experts in transportation, finance, planning and management. In Washington state, we have an independent, bipartisan commission that sets tolls. Eyman and Freeman, however, want that job turned over to the Legislature, to be ground up in the partisan turbines of politics.

Washington State actually has a long tradition of having an expert commission set toll rates. We agree – it makes no sense to change that approach. It has always worked for us and it can continue to work, so long as we reject I-1125.

Vote NO on I-1125 this autumn and keep our roads safe.

The News Tribune: I-1125 is “a monkey wrench aimed squarely at the state’s efforts to keep cars moving”

EndorsementsFrom the Campaign Trail

The campaign against Tim Eyman’s Initiative 1125 continues to gain momentum. Across the state, editorial boards are universally coming out against I-1125, because it jeopardizes transportation projects that Washington needs to replace and repair unsafe roads and bridges. The latest paper to oppose I-1125 is the News Tribune of Tacoma, which called I-1125 “a monkey wrench aimed squarely at the state’s efforts to keep cars moving on overcrowded roads.”

As the News Tribune observes, there are lot of “dumb things” in I-1125.

It would forbid variable tolling, a strategy designed to relieve rush hours by encouraging people to make unnecessary trips before or after. This would also threaten plans to finance the replacement SR 520 bridge and the Alaskan Way tunnel in Seattle, among other projects.

The initiative also contains a payoff to Kemper Freeman Jr., a Bellevue real estate magnate who opposes light rail. An innocent-sounding provision in the initiative would have the effect of sabotaging a planned extension of Sound Transit’s light rail system across Lake Washington to Bellevue on the Interstate 90 bridge.

Why should a state initiative tell Puget Sounders they can’t have the light rail system they voted for? Here’s a guess: It might have something to do with the more than $1 million Freeman paid to bankroll I-1125.

Section 2 of I-1125 is proof that Tim Eyman only cares about the will of the voters when voters agree with him. Each time he has tried to play transportation planner (like with I-745 in 2000, or I-985 in 2008), voters have said no. But Eyman isn’t listening.

It’s time once again to say no to another counterproductive, thoughtless Tim Eyman measure. Vote NO on Initiative 1125 and keep Washington rolling.

Everett Herald: I-1125 is a “formula for more gridlock”

EndorsementsFrom the Campaign Trail

The Everett Herald yesterday became the latest newspaper to declare its opposition to Tim Eyman’s ill-conceived I-1125, highlighting some of the initiative’s destructive consequences in a fairly-well written editorial. A couple key snippets:

Tim Eyman’s Initiative 1125 isn’t just one bad idea, it’s a bunch of them.

Their cumulative effect would severely damage the state’s ability to build and maintain the roads and bridges necessary to support a vibrant economy and good-paying jobs. We strongly encourage voters to reject it this fall.

The Herald goes on to say:

It is soundly opposed by the state’s major business groups and employers, including Boeing and Microsoft, for good reason. They know that with per-capita gasoline consumption dropping, and gas-tax revenue along with it, alternatives are needed to pay for our road infrastructure and keep commerce moving. Viable tolling options must be one of them, especially for major projects. I-1125 would wipe out the truly effective ones, leading to more traffic delays throughout the region.

Defeating I-1125 is key to keeping vital projects like the new Evergreen Point Floating Bridge or Sound Transit’s East Link light rail on track. That’s why Keep Washington Rolling – an extremely broad coalition of businesses and organizations with very different views on major issues – has come together to fight I-1125. Join us in ensuring that our roads are safe… vote NO on Initiative 1125.

Seattle Times calls I-1125 “a mess too large”

EndorsementsFrom the Campaign Trail

The Seattle Times, which has enthusiastically supported two of Tim Eyman’s last four initiatives (and firmly opposed the other two), has made public its stance on Initiative 1125. In an eight paragraph editorial, the paper, owned and controlled by the Blethen family, urged voters to save road projects and vote no.

By restricting the state’s management of its highways, including tolls, Initiative 1125 would make it more difficult to build needed roads and bridges.

The whole state has an interest in this. Tolls are a way to help pay for expensive parts without dipping too heavily into the common pot. Without tolls, the biggest projects either would not get built, or would guzzle all the other road money. That is how a toll on the Highway 520 bridge-replacement project in Seattle protects money in Yakima and in Spokane.

The editorial ends by listing some of the projects that would be jeopardized by I-1125: the new Evergreen Point Floating Bridge, the Columbia River Crossing, and Sound Transit’s East Link light rail system. All of them would be “messed up”, the editorial says, proclaiming I-1125 to be “a mess too large”.

It looks like most, if not all, of Tim Eyman’s fair-weather friends have abandoned him this year. Only his closest followers and sympathizers have come out in favor of I-1125, while the opposition has become more and more widespread.

Bellevue Chamber of Commerce: NO on 1125

EndorsementsFrom the Campaign Trail

Following in the footsteps of many local chambers of commerce around Washington State, the Bellevue Chamber has taken a strong NO position on I-1125. The endorsement is significant because Bellevue is the home of Tim Eyman’s No. 2 all-time wealthy benefactor, Kemper Freeman, Jr. Freeman owns Bellevue Square, Bellevue Place, and Lincoln Square (which his company dubs “The Bellevue Collection”).

Freeman has not hesitated to part ways with business groups that do not rigidly adhere to the ideology he believes in. He previously left the Bellevue Downtown Association due to “differences of opinion” that “could not be resolved.”

“We appreciate the Bellevue Chamber of Commerce’s opposition to Initiative 1125,” said Steve Mullin, president of the Washington Roundtable. “The Chamber understands that our state’s recovery and future vitality are  dependent on trade, agriculture and innovation – and that requires a transportation network that moves goods and workers efficiently.  I-1125 is the wrong prescription for Washington State’s economy.”

The Bellevue Chamber also took a position supporting Costco’s I-1183, a right wing proposal to privatize liquor, which NPI strongly opposes.

Wenatchee World urges NO vote on I-1125

EndorsementsFrom the Campaign Trail

One of the more widely read newspapers in Eastern Washington has declared its opposition to the latest scheme to come out of Tim Eyman’s mill. The Wenatchee World, published from the heart of central Washington, urged voters this weekend to say NO to Initiative 1125. Here’s a key excerpt from their editorial:

I-1125 will make it more difficult to set and raise highway tolls. It will restrict who sets tolls, how toll revenues are spent, where they can be collected and for how long. That might bring temporary satisfaction to some, but it will shut down an important means to finance big highway projects. It will strain the already-limited resources for transportation funding, put upward pressure on the gas tax once again, and make it certain that more taxes from here will go to pay for the big projects over there. Projects delayed will increase costs and congestion and add to business and building expense everywhere. Initiative 1125 is an exceptionally bad trade.

This is a solid analysis. It is no accident that I-1125 would prevent Washington State from flexibly using tolls as a funding mechanism for rebuilding crumbling bridges and highways. Nor is it an accident that I-1125 contains a provision intended to prevent Sound Transit from ever bringing light rail across Lake Washington. This is all by design.

For more than a decade, Tim Eyman has sponsored initiatives intended to paralyze public services, destroy our common wealth, and wreck government. I-1125 is just the latest bad idea from his initiative factory. It must be rejected this November if key projects like SR 520 or East Link light rail are to be kept on track.

Vote NO on I-1125.

Statement on Tim Eyman’s lawsuit against the City of Redmond

Statements & Advisories

Earlier today, Tim Eyman (represented by Seattle attorney Daniel Quick) filed a lawsuit against NPI’s hometown, the City of Redmond, which seeks to force Mayor John Marchione and the city council to forward petitions for an initiative orchestrated by red-light camera opponent Scott Harlan to the King County Elections Division for processing.

Based on the advice of Redmond’s attorney, the city’s elected leaders last week concluded that the anti-camera measure Harlan spearheaded (with publicity arranged by Tim Eyman) did not concern a subject that could be legitimately put to a public vote under the laws of the State of Washington. After reaching this determination, the city made it known that it would not be sending the petitions for Redmond Initiative No. 1 to King County Elections for verification.

Scott Harlan subsequently threatened to sue the city, but not surprisingly, it is Tim Eyman’s name that is appearing on the lawsuit.

Neither Eyman nor Harlan resides within Redmond.

“Once again, Tim Eyman is interfering in the affairs of a jurisdiction in which he has no vote,” said NPI founder Andrew Villeneuve, who is a lifelong Redmond resident. “Several of Tim Eyman’s poorly written, ill-conceived statewide initiatives have directly hurt the people of Redmond and eliminated funding for public services in Redmond. Now Tim has is taking us and our elected leaders to court in an attempt to garner more publicity for himself.”

“The issue of whether it makes sense for the city to maintain and operate red-light cameras is a serious one that combines many topics, including public safety, fiscal responsibility, and civil liberties. An issue like this deserves true discussion and debate that goes beyond sound bites and talking points. We have no objection to Tim Eyman using his First Amendment rights to express his views on red-light cameras, but by filing this lawsuit, Eyman has gone from commentator to litigator. As a resident of Redmond, I know I speak for many of my neighbors when I say that Tim Eyman’s interference in our city’s business is not welcome.”

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NPI's Permanent Defense project is a member of the coalition working to defeat Brian Heywood's latest crop of dangerous initiatives.

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Permanent Defense works to protect Washington by building a first line of defense against threats to the common wealth and Constitution of the Evergreen State — like Brian Heywood's initiative factory. Learn more.

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