Category Archives: Threat Analysis

Right wing local news site headline: “Republicans are in panic mode as initiative deadline approaches”

From the Campaign TrailThreat Analysis

Mega-millionaire Brian Heywood and Let’s Go Washington may have gathered enough legally sufficient signatures to force the Secretary of State to process their IL26-001 and IL26-638 petitions, but Republicans are apparently not feeling confident about qualifying Jim Walsh’s voter cancellation initiative (IL26-126), judging by this headline from Mario Lotmore’s Lynnwood Times: “Republicans are in panic mode as initiative deadline approaches.”

Walsh has previously characterized that measure as being on track to qualify. But he hasn’t been putting out signature counts like Heywood and his spokesman have for the other two measures, which has been telling. Walsh’s spin has now been totally undercut by right wing operative Scott Pressler, who said in a clip posted to Twitter by right wing talk show host Ari Hoffman: “The voter ID initiative is likely to fail on Jan 2nd… My question to Washingtonians is, if you really want election integrity, why are we not getting the signatures?”

The answer to that question is that signature drives are logistically complex organizing endeavors that are rarely successful without paid labor. It doesn’t matter what a cause is or how much grassroots support it has: if people aren’t being paid to collect signatures, getting that cause on the ballot in the form of an initiative or referendum is going to be exceptionally difficult.

Brian Heywood learned this years ago. His initial attempt to put a slate of initiatives on the Washington ballot in 2022 ended in complete failure. Not a single measure qualified. The mass media and political observers only started taking him seriously after he opened his checkbook and began shelling out big sums for paid signature gathering in 2023.

By this time two years ago, Heywood had bought enough signatures to qualify six schemes to the 2024 Washington State Legislature.

For 2026, Heywood is going for just two, while Walsh tries to ride his coattails with IL26-126. Heywood has been happy to have petitions for IL26-126 at “super signing events” organized by Let’s Go Washington — many of them staged at public school gymnasiums — but evidently Heywood’s hired help is not being paid to carry the 126 petitions.

That means 126 is on the verge of failing — and right wing media personalities are worried about the optics. “The media will paint it as a failure, it’ll be harder for the next initiative & we’ll have given a gift to Democrats,” Hoffman groused on Elon Musk’s Twitter.

True on all counts.

That’s why attempting this initiative was a bad idea.

Shortly after Walsh announced it, we released polling showing that 60% of Washingtonians wanted Walsh and the state Republicans to abandon ship and ditch Walsh’s voter cancellation measure. Walsh did not listen. If he crashes and burns next week, it will be an inferno of his own making.

We expect Heywood will be submitting signatures IL26-001 and IL26-638, though there’s some nervousness on the part of his allies about the size of their cushion.

“The initiatives to [destroy the Safety Act and mandate invasive genital exams] in WA are close to getting enough signatures, but not quite there yet,” Republican State Representative Travis Couture wrote. “If you have signatures to send in, sending them by mail might not get there in time. Instead of the mail, the Let’s Go Washington website has drop off locations for signed petitions, and in some circumstances you can reach out and they’ll pick them up for you.”

Brian Heywood has informally adopted Jim Walsh’s voter cancellation initiative onto his slate for 2026

Threat Analysis

Mega-millionaire Brian Heywood confirmed in a Twitter post today that petitions for Washington State Republican Party Chair Jim Walsh’s mass voter cancellation initiative are being circulated at “super signing events” that are being organized by Heywood’s Let’s Go Washington political committee, effectively making Walsh’s IL26-126 part of Heywood’s slate of 2026 measures.

Heywood posted a photo of people signing petitions and said: “Lots of support in Tumwater for protecting girls sports, keeping parents informed, and needing an ID to register to vote….”

Brian Heywood photo
A photo posted by Brian Heywood on Twitter of his December 13th event in Tumwater

This is a reference to three measures:

  • Heywood’s IL26-001, which repeals the Safety Act signed into law this year protecting youth and expanding parental rights
  • Heywood’s IL26-638, which requires young girls across Washington to submit to invasive genital exams just to participate in student athletics
  • Walsh’s IL26-126, which would cancel the voter registrations of any Washington voter who doesn’t have an enhanced driver’s license and doesn’t go in person to “prove” their citizenship

The Let’s Go Washington website has long promoted the first two measures. The third, an obsession of Walsh’s, has not been circulated under the Let’s Go Washington banner.

But that appears to be changing. Heywood has embraced IL26-126.

Yesterday evening, Walsh said in a Twitter update of his own that the state party and Let’s Go Washington would be setting up a “pony express” to acquire petitions they’ve distributed for submission to the Secretary of State’s office:

@WAGOP in conjunction with @letsgowa are embarking on a pony express-like system to collect signatures from various drop-off locations across the state. “All three initiatives are on track to qualify by the Jan 2, 2026, deadline,” adds Chairman.

The tweet is accompanied by an odd-looking video recorded in Walsh’s office with Walsh in the corner of the frame instead of centered:

In December 2023, Walsh and Heywood submitted millions of signatures for six destructive right wing initiatives. All six qualified. Three were taken off the ballot by the Legislature and passed into law; one of those, I-2081, was subsequently superseded by the Safety Act this year. The other three went to the ballot and were resoundingly defeated by Washingtonians. A seventh measure that qualified as an initiative to the people in 2024 passed narrowly and is being challenged in court.

Brian Heywood’s initiative factory is active again: Mega-millionaire will circulate petitions for two measures to sabotage youth and LGBTQ+ rights

Statements & AdvisoriesThreat Analysis

After mostly laying low this summer, Heywood has now disclosed plans to try to qualify two measures to the 2026 Washington State Legislature. One attempts to overturn the landmark student rights and parental involvement law that the Legislature passed back in the spring, which superseded one of the three Heywood-backed initiatives that did not go to the ballot in 2024. The other cruelly targets transgender youth, seeking to bar transgender girls from participating in girls’ sports. 

Keep reading

NPI relaunches StopGreed.org following Let’s Go Washington signature turn in event

From the Campaign TrailRethinking and ReframingStatements & AdvisoriesThreat Analysis

On November 21st, a network of right wing groups primarily funded by Republican millionaire Brian Heywood submitted what they said were over 418,000 signatures supporting I-2117, an initiative that seeks to repeal Washington State’s landmark Climate Commitment Act, and pledged to return soon to submit signatures for another five measures that they hope to qualify as initiatives to the Legislature in 2024. In response, the Northwest Progressive Institute, a 501(c)(4) nonprofit strategy center that has been working for over two decades to expand freedom and prosperity for Washingtonians, Oregonians, and Idahoans, relaunched its StopGreed.org website to help Washingtonians understand the danger posed by these six measures.

Keep reading

Brian Heywood’s TDM Strategies signature gathering firm now has a business license

Threat Analysis

Local right wing millionaire Brian Heywood has finally obtained a business license for the new limited liability company that he recently created with Sharon Hanek to employ petitioners to collect signatures for the harmful slate of “Let’s Go Washington” schemes that he wants to qualify to the statewide ballot in 2024, a scan of public records conducted by NPI has found. 

Keep reading

NPI responds to submission of signatures for R-90: Young people deserve comprehensive sexual health education

From the Campaign TrailStatements & AdvisoriesThreat Analysis

This afternoon in Olympia, right wing activists submitted what they said were more than 260,000 signatures in support of Referendum 90, a measure that seeks to force a November 2020 statewide vote on ESSB 5395, Washington’s new comprehensive sexual health education (CSHE) law. Under the Washington State Constitution, sponsors and backers of R-90 had until the close of business today to submit 129,811 valid signatures from Washington voters. The campaign’s claimed total easily exceeds this number, although the signatures must still be validated via random sample check before a determination of qualification can be made.

Following the submission of signatures, Northwest Progressive Institute founder and Executive Director Andrew Villeneuve pledged that NPI would work hard to secure a vote of approval from the people that sustains ESSB 5395 this autumn.

“Washingtonians deserve a vigorous campaign in defense of our sorely needed comprehensive sexual health education law,” said Villeneuve. “NPI is committed to helping build a broad coalition to make that happen. Knowledge is power, and it’s critically important that young people have the information they need to make safe and healthy decisions, no matter what zip code they live in. That’s why our state needs ESSB 5395. We are fired up to defend this law on the November 2020 ballot.”

More than two out of three Washingtonians surveyed last autumn support comprehensive sexual health education, Villeneuve noted. “Last autumn, before the 2020 legislative session, we asked likely Washington voters about their views on ESSB 5395. 67% expressed support, and nearly fifty percent told us that they strongly supported the bill.”

“So when the right wing says this legislation is unpopular, what they really mean is that it’s unpopular with their base. Their base, however, is not a majority of the electorate in the State of Washington. They’ve demonstrated that they have a capability to force a public vote on this issue. Now we intend to demonstrate that a majority supports keeping this important new law in place.”

“We’re ready to wage a campaign that brings Washingtonians together in support of providing our young people with the curriculum they need to make safe and healthy decisions. We look forward to fostering a dialogue with the public about the value of comprehensive sexual health education, and debunking the lies and misinformation that the right wing has been circulating about ESSB 5395.”

Here’s the question NPI asked, and the responses we received:

QUESTION: The Washington State Superintendent of Public Instruction has asked the Washington State Legislature to adopt legislation requiring all Washington state schools to teach inclusive, evidence-informed, scientifically accurate, comprehensive sexual health education, which must include “affirmative consent” curriculum. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose this legislation?

ANSWERS:

  • Support: 67%
    • Strongly Support: 49%
    • Somewhat Support: 18%
  • Oppose: 22%
    • Somewhat Oppose:  7%
    • Strongly Oppose: 15%
  • Not Sure: 11%

Our survey of nine hundred likely 2019 Washington State voters was in the field October 22nd-23rd, 2019. The survey used a blended methodology with automated phone calls to landlines and text messages to cell phone only respondents. The poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling for NPI, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3% at the 95% confidence level. More details about NPI’s poll finding are available in this Cascadia Advocate post.

Referendum 88 certified; voters to decide whether to keep Initiative 1000 or not

Statements & AdvisoriesThreat Analysis

As expected, the right wing has succeeded in forcing a vote on Washington’s Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Act (Initiative 1000). Adopted by the Legislature on April 28th, 2019, I-1000 would empower state agencies and institutions of higher learning to conduct outreach to disadvantaged populations and underrepresented constituencies.

After the conclusion of session, the right wing mobilized to mount a referendum campaign against Initiative 1000, using a bevy of lies to convince voters to sign their petitions. The campaign began turning in its signatures several days prior to the deadline.

“Sponsors had ninety days to collect at least 129,811 signatures of Washington registered voters. 213,268 signatures were submitted during the week leading up to the July 27th deadline,” Secretary of State Kim Wyman’s office said in a news release. “The Office of the Secretary of State verified that R-88 had been signed by enough registered voters to meet constitutional requirements to make the November ballot.”

Referendum 88 is the second right wing measure to qualify for the November 2019 ballot, following Tim Eyman’s I-976. Twelve Eyman push polls will also be on the ballot, but unlike R-88 and I-976, they are not binding.

If R-88 is approved, Initiative 1000 will remain in place and go into effect as intended by the Legislature. If I-1000 is rejected, it will be repealed.

NPI is working with business, labor, and civic groups to build a strong coalition to Approve Referendum 88 and uphold Initiative 1000 this autumn.

We believe Washington’s Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Act is worth defending, and we’re committed to ensuring voters have the information they need to cast an informed vote on Referendum 88 this autumn.

Second right wing measure appears destined for November 2019 ballot: Referendum 88 likely to qualify

Statements & AdvisoriesThreat Analysis

A right wing effort to overturn the Washington State Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Act (Initiative 1000) by referendum appears to have succeeded in collecting the necessary signatures to force a statewide vote this autumn. Backers of Referendum 88 today submitted what they said were almost 177,000 signatures and plan to turn in another 20,000 more by Saturday at 5 PM, which is the deadline for submitting signatures.

To be certified, petitions for a referendum like R-88 must contain the signatures of at least 129,811 registered voters. As set forth in the Constitution, the minimum number of valid signatures required for a referendum is equivalent to four percent of the number of Washingtonians who participated in the last election for governor.

NPI’s Permanent Defense has been monitoring the R-88 signature drive for the past several weeks and expected today’s developments.

Many people who were approached to sign a Referendum 88 petition reported to NPI that the petitioner told them R-88 was a measure to help veterans, or to make affirmative action legal. The truth is just the opposite. Backers of R-88 want to overturn I-1000, a legislatively adopted initiative that prohibits discrimination against veterans and allows state agencies to help disadvantaged and historically underrepresented groups. It appears that a significant number of signatures for R-88 were obtained under false pretenses.

To keep I-1000 the law of the land, a majority of voters in Washington must vote Approved on Referendum 88 this autumn.

NPI is working with business, labor, and civic groups to build a strong coalition to Approve Referendum 88. Below is the press release we published today in response to the submission of signatures for this measure.

Keep reading

Tim Eyman’s I-1648 looks like another fake from a con artist with no shame

Statements & AdvisoriesThreat Analysis

Over the past four years, while doing his best to stonewall Attorney General Bob Ferguson’s investigation into his egregious violations of Washington’s public disclosure laws, Tim Eyman has attempted to qualify nearly half a dozen initiatives to the ballot.

Each time, with the sole exception of I-976 (which is on the November 2019 ballot), Eyman’s petition drives have ended in failure, because he didn’t have the money to purchase the signatures necessary to force a public vote on his bad ideas.

There was I-1421, I-869, and I-947, the three failed precursors to Initiative 976.

In between I-869 and I-947, there was I-1550, a failed scheme to gut property taxes.

And before those four, at the end of 2015, there was a initiative concept announced by Eyman and his associates Mike and Jack Fagan with an ice cream social in Governor Jay Inslee’s office. Eyman printed up prop petitions for that measure to use at his press conference, but then failed to actually launch a signature drive following the new year.

That initiative concept from almost four years ago is the basis for I-1648.

As with I-1648, each of the aforementioned fakes was unveiled and trumpeted by Eyman with all the fanfare he could muster through email blasts, social media postings, and right wing talk radio appearances. And each went nowhere, because Eyman simply does not have the network of support necessary to qualify anything to the ballot with just volunteer labor.

I-976 is Eyman’s first real initiative in years. It’s already on the ballot — Eyman claims he cashed out his retirement in order to finance the signature drive, although documents filed in U.S. Bankruptcy Court suggest Eyman didn’t entirely empty his retirement fund to qualify the measure — but rather than focus on trying to sell it to voters, Eyman has decided to make another run at getting a second scheme on the November ballot.

Eyman’s initial plan to double up on the November 2019 ballot was to qualify Referendum 80, an attempt to void the new salary schedule for legislators and statewide elected officials adopted by the Washington Citizens Commission on Salaries for Elected Officials.

But he botched that effort and it imploded a few weeks ago.

Now Eyman is trying to resurrect the scheme he came up with a few years ago to follow his hostage-taking Initiative 1366, which would force any revenue reform agreed to by the Legislature to expire after one year unless approved at the ballot.

Initiative 1648 also seeks to repeal all of the modest revenue reforms just enacted by the House and Senate as part of the recently-concluded regular session of the Washington State Legislature. Since it’s trying to do two different things, it probably violates the Washington State Constitution’s single subject rule.

Because Eyman is aiming for the 2019 ballot, he is operating on a tight timeframe. He has less than two months to collect 330,000 signatures.

We can’t find any evidence that Eyman has found a wealthy benefactor to underwrite the signature drive for I-1648. And Eyman would need a wealthy benefactor to make this initiative go. Therefore, at this time, we assess that I-1648 is another one of Eyman’s fakes — a scam designed to part rank and file Republicans from their money.

If I-1648 becomes a credible threat, we’ll immediately begin organizing opposition to it.

You are here:

Join us in supporting Washington Families For Freedom

Washington Families For Freedom
NPI's Permanent Defense project is a member of the coalition working to defeat Brian Heywood's latest crop of dangerous initiatives.

What we do

Permanent Defense works to protect Washington by building a first line of defense against threats to the common wealth and Constitution of the Evergreen State — like Brian Heywood's initiative factory. Learn more.

Protecting Washington Since 2002

Newsroom Archives