This afternoon in Tumwater, right wing mega-millionaire Brian Heywood’s operatives will be submitting signatures for IP26-645, Heywood’s latest measure that seeks to repeal the million-dollar earners tax enacted by the Legislature and Governor Bob Ferguson in March.

At these turn-in events at the Secretary of State’s Elections Annex in Tumwater, it has become Heywood’s custom to stand in front of a big posterboard and brag about how many signatures he procured, while using a big black marker to “announce” the total.

Sometimes, Heywood will also break down what the suspected party affiliation is of the signers (for instance, x% percentage of signatories are believed to be Democratic voters based on data analysis).

Heywood does this because he wants everyone to think that what he’s proposing is popular.

But don’t be fooled: Signature totals are not evidence of how the public feels about a ballot measure. Anyone with enough money can qualify anything they want for the ballot, regardless of subject.

So long as one or more wealthy donors is willing to part with the money to pay a workforce to gather the signatures over the span of at least a few weeks, the measure will qualify — it becomes a matter of logistics. Plenty of people will sign anything once asked, and what’s more, petitioners are even known to tell voters who display some hesitancy that their signature is “just to get it on the ballot,” and they’ll have an opportunity to vote yes or no later if it qualifies.

An initiative can qualify for the ballot with a huge number of signatures and go on to fail, even spectacularly. We can see this from looking at the electoral history: the Office of the Secretary of State maintains a list of the initiatives with the highest signature counts, and quite a few of the top twenty-five were anti-tax measures that were rejected, including three of Heywood’s own measures from 2024:

• Rejected: Brian Heywood’s I-2117, 2024 (repeal of the Climate Commitment Act)
  • Fourth highest number of signatures on SOS list (466,072)
  • No vote in November 2024: 61.95%
• Rejected: Brian Heywood’s I-2109, 2024 (repeal of the capital gains tax on the wealthy)
  • Eighth highest number of signatures on SOS list (436,474)
  • No vote in November 2024: 64.11%
• Rejected: Brian Heywood’s I-2124, 2024 (sabotage of WA Cares)
  • Tenth highest number of signatures on SOS list (427,481)
  • No vote in November 2024: 55.46%
• Rejected: John Carlson and Kirby Wilbur’s I-912, 2005 (repeal of gas tax increase)
  • Twelfth highest number of signatures on SOS list (400,996)
  • No vote in November 2005: 54.62%
• Rejected: Costco’s I-1100 (liquor privatization)
  • Fourteenth highest number of signatures on SOS list (395,917)
  • No vote in November 2010: 53.43%
• Rejected: Dennis Falk’s I-920, 2006 (repeal of estate tax)
  • Fifteenth highest number of signatures on SOS list (395,219)
  • No vote in November 2006: 61.78%
• Rejected: Young’s and Odom’s 1105 (liquor privatization)
  • Twenty-first highest number of signatures on SOS list (358,525)
  • No vote in November 2010: 65.04%
• Rejected: Initiative 522 (GMO food labeling)
  • Twenty-fourth highest number of signatures on SOS list (353,331)
  • No vote in November 2013: 51.09%

There are also measures on the list that barely passed, like Brian Heywood’s I-2066, which appeared on the November 2024 ballot and was subsequently struck down as unconstitutional (an appeal is pending).

What is suggestive of public opinion is research done according to the scientific method, meaning neutral questions asked of representative samples. 

Polling for the I-645 opposition coalition, to which NPI belongs, has found that a majority of voters indicate they oppose I-645 before any messaging. That’s a dangerous place for a yes campaign to be at the starting gate.

As the list above shows, several of the drives with the highest signature totals in Washington State history are Heywood’s.

But those totals didn’t set him up for success last cycle.

This looks likely to be a vigorous, hard-fought campaign, and it will be won by the side that makes the best arguments to voters.